Agency- As 2025 draws to a close, international organizations and financial institutions are increasingly optimistic about China’s economic resilience and growth potential. While acknowledging challenges such as geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, experts emphasize China’s robust economic fundamentals, policy tools, and structural upgrading as key factors sustaining growth momentum.
Goldman Sachs, in a late-November research report, upgraded China’s 2025 real GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5%, projecting even higher growth in the following two years. The report highlighted that China’s real export growth is expected to rise 5–6% annually, up from previous estimates of 2–3%, as Chinese goods capture larger global market share. The report also noted that recommendations from the October Party plenum for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will drive modernization of traditional industries like metals, chemicals, and textiles, while promoting emerging sectors such as new energy, supported across government levels from logistics to financing.
The OECD mirrored this optimism, revising China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 5% while maintaining a stable global growth outlook at 3.2%. The organization cited China’s expansionary fiscal policies, including measures supporting incomes, consumption, and trade-in programs for cars and appliances.
Foreign financial institutions have expressed similar confidence. Deutsche Bank’s chief China economist Xiong Yi highlighted a 500 billion yuan policy-based financial instrument expected to boost domestic demand through late 2025 and early 2026. Morgan Stanley forecast moderate 2026 growth fueled by targeted policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing, and anti-involution measures.
Domestic analysts echoed the optimism. Zhao Gege of Everbright Securities emphasized China’s market scale and industrial system as growth enablers, while Zhang Wenlang of China International Capital Corporation pointed to improvements in trade structure, technological advancement, and stabilized export profit margins. Zhou Junzhi of China Securities noted emerging consumption segments, including IP trend toys and domestic brands, driving new growth and global expansion.
Global companies have also demonstrated confidence in China’s long-term prospects. Danfoss opened a major production base in Zhejiang in September, Medtronic launched its first digital healthcare innovation center in Beijing in October, and AP Moller-Maersk invested over 1 billion yuan in its Shanghai logistics center in November. Shanghai’s 2025 Import Expo recorded $83.49 billion in intended deals, up 4.4% from last year, while the 138th Canton Fair attracted over 310,000 overseas buyers with intended exports worth $25.65 billion.
A spokesperson for China’s National Bureau of Statistics summarized the outlook, stating that stable operations, steady progress in high-quality development, and the country’s inherent resilience and potential remain unchanged, forming a strong foundation for continued economic growth.
